Magalong’s spike forecast proves true as Baguio’s cases begin to rise but mayor says ‘worst is yet to come’

27 August 2021 – Mayor Benjamin Magalong’s projection of a Delta variant-driven spike in Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the next days proved true but the city mayor warned that the “worst is yet to come.”

Reacting to the report of City Health Officer Dr. Rowena Galpo on the past week’s increase in the COVID number during the Management Committee (Mancom) meeting on Aug. 24, the mayor said it should not come as a surprise because was as forecast and prepared for.

He said with the contingency measures and interventions set in place months before, the city has not felt the full impact of the new variant but he warned that the brunt has yet to happen by the end of September based on projections.

“The worst is yet to come.  Based on the latest projections, the worst can happen by the end of September so we continue our countermeasures even while we are beginning to feel its effects now,” he said.

Galpo said the city is presently experiencing an increase in cases with a four percent hike in its active cases in a week’s time and an upturn in positivity rate from 7.49 percent to 8.27 percent in the last two weeks.

Its numbers in the risk indicators also rose with its daily attack rate increasing from 7.6 percent to 11.2 percent as well as the two-week growth rate from negative 23 to 13 percent elevating the city’s risk classification to high risk.

The mayor however noted that compared to last April’s surge experience, the death and hospital utilization rate were lower this time proving that vaccination and other interventions are working. – Aileen P. Refuerzo