Omicron projection: 250 cases per day in worst-case scenario

Omicron projection: 250 cases per day in worst-case scenario

Baguio City’s Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases are projected to reach 250-280 cases daily in a worst-case scenario of the protracted wave driven by the omicron variant

The spike may begin in the middle of January and peak on the fourth week or middle of February.

The projections were based on statistical analysis of University of the Philippines Baguio Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science (UP-DMCS) and the City Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit (CESU), according to City Health Officer Dr. Rowena Galpo.

CESU Head Dr. Donnabel Panes however said the projections were based on the current situation and may still change as the days go by.

Among the factors considered in making the assumptions were the number of cases of the same time last year, the delta variant surge experience and vaccination rate among others.

Panes said they are hoping that with the omicron peak, the city would see less hospitalization and death unlike in its delta variant experience when the city recorded a big number of severe cases and deaths.

“We might be expecting a big number of cases but what we would like to see is less people having severe symptoms and being hospitalized with the success of our vaccination program and the sustained control measures set in place by the city,” she said.

She said initial analysis of data of active COVID-19 patients from November to the first week of January showed how vaccination and compliance to the health protocols have contributed to this aim.

She said there was a 33 percent decrease in hospitalization among active COVID-19 patients this month compared to when the city posted the same number of active cases back in November. – Aileen P. Refuerzo